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Title: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ISBN: 1-58799-071-7 Publisher: Thomson Texere Pub. Date: October, 2001 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 3.83 (191 reviews)
Rating: 1
Summary: Odds are
Comment: Many of the "new ideas" in this book are old bromides from a good probability and statistics course. While that may be "lifesaving" for many of the "traders" who read this book, its not novel or new, and one wonders why their education was so deficient that they were overly impressed with this book.
The tone of this book shows a flawed attitude towards others and the intelligence of others. The major failing of this book is that it suggests there is nothing harmful in this tone, when in reality, that is more harmful than a poor understanding of rudimentary statistics.
The major indicator of success on the job is your ability to get along with your boss, if you have one. If you don't, the major indicator of your success in life, happiness in life, is your ability to get along with others.
This book fails on many levels.
Rating: 4
Summary: Fun read + thoughtful ideas
Comment: I am a trader myself, and ran into this book as, ironically, a lucky coincidence: I happened to read the emerging markets chapter as a draft that was getting emailed around the office, and enjoyed it so much i purchased the rest of the book...
I found the book to be well written, opinionated and with some great ideas that frankly are hard to argue against. His book, at the core, is about the problem of induction. Statistics, for how useful they may be day to day, certainly do not solve this problem, and indeed, luck and skill are hard to differentiate in the markets.
He exposes a problem of a philosophical nature, and he is certainly not suggesting to drop all induced laws and redefine a day to day life full of uncertainty and incapable of establishing practical rules.
This book is not meant to be a textbook so i am not sure why Taleb's flair as a writer is getting attacked so repeatedly here. I think his writing style is elegant, amusing and smooth. This book is about opinion, so accusing him of having an opinion seems a misplaced objection. Also, i believe his writing is being somewhat misinterpreted. While there is an undertone of arrogance, it is self mocking. He does not claim to know better. His only, somewhat socratic claim is that he at least knows he does not know...I am surrounded by arrogance at work, and i can tell you, Taleb's ain't so!
Rating: 1
Summary: Stinks! Hardly an ounce of substance or intelligent thought
Comment: This book was in a word - HORRIBLE. There was absolutely no depth in the material, not even for someone with NO probability background or experience in the markets. I think a child could pick up this book and read many of the passages and just say - well duh. The parts of the book that don't deal with the absolute simplest most obvious and overplayed probability concepts deal with nothing but the author claiming most successful traders have only been very lucky, stripping them of all the skill they have (which I suspect the author only wishes he possessed). He has no good data (empirical or anecdotal) to back it up, but only makes up fictional characters to back up his claim - which is like me saying most Frenchmen don't bathe and then making up a French character who never bathes do back up my claim.
If you are interested in learning anything about the markets or probability theory, do not waste your money on this book. If you are interested in reading ideas about the market from an experienced trader, do not waste your money on this book. If you are interested in reading about "the hidden role of chance in the markets and in life", do not waste your money on this book.
This is the best advice I can give you.
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Title: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein ISBN: 0471295639 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 31 August, 1998 List Price(USD): $19.95 |
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Title: When Genius Failed : The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein ISBN: 0375758259 Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks Pub. Date: 09 October, 2001 List Price(USD): $14.95 |
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Title: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market by John Allen Paulos ISBN: 0465054803 Publisher: Basic Books Pub. Date: 13 May, 2003 List Price(USD): $25.00 |
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Title: Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market by John Mauldin ISBN: 0471655430 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 16 April, 2004 List Price(USD): $24.95 |
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Title: Dynamic Hedging : Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ISBN: 0471152803 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 20 December, 1996 List Price(USD): $100.00 |
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