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Title: Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas by Marcus Noland ISBN: 0-88132-278-4 Publisher: Institute for International Economics Pub. Date: June, 2000 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $30.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.56 (16 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: The Book From Which Policies Should Flow
Comment: For those who try to understand the conundrum that is Korea, this book is a stiff cold wind, and entirely welcome. Indeed it is a daunting read, full of econometric and logical analyses, but Avoiding the Apocalypse : The Future of the Two Koreas repays careful reading many times over.
Aside from the rigorous analysis, however, are the three concluding chapters. The author discusses three alternative paths for North Korea's future, and reaches a conclusion. Not only is the author open-minded, but the prospect for each scenario opens up possible policy implications for all countries involved.
This book also provides useful information on South Korea, even though it is billed as a book on North Korea. In many ways, the author's reflections on Korean history and South Korean development are more useful than the North Korean sections. Before North Korea can be dispassionately analyzed, South Korean success must be analyzed.
I put down this book and reached the conclusion, that the world just may have to live with a North Korea, de-villified, but certainly dangerous, for a long time. South Korea also faces more difficulties than it realizes, and should look at North Korea as an example in negative.
Still, with all the analysis and history, the mystery that is Korea is still there in the shadows. This book does admirably well with figures and facts, but so much is misunderstood. This book does as best as any could with this emotional subject, and, hopefully, will be the basis for thought, not rhetoric.
Rating: 5
Summary: a superb work on Korea
Comment: The Korean peninsula faces a complex foreign policy crisis involving the interplay of economic and security issues. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" is magisterial in scope, integrating the economic, political, and security dimensions. The sheer breadth of the book is remarkable. The book covers the development of the South Korean economy and the financial crisis that has rocked the South in the past few years. It offers an insightful look into the workings of the North Korean economy, and how the failings of that economy led to both strategic adventurism and famine. The final third of the book is devoted to an analysis of future scenarios on the peninsula. Noland identifies as most likely a scenario in which the North undertakes ad hoc policy adjustments while supported by engagement with South Korea, China, Japan, and possibly even the United States. While the book is thoroughly researched and referenced, its tone is quite lively and accessible to a broad audience -- at times even drolly humorous. An excellent and important work on Korea.
Rating: 5
Summary: Constructive Alternatives
Comment: During the Cold War, US policymakers focused on security. In the globalized world, the challenge is to integrate economics into the analytical framework. Dr. Marcus Noland has done this with his book "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas." He demonstrates how economics and domestic political concerns have combined to create the odd situation in which the US is building two nuclear reactors for a country with which it fought a war and does not maintain diplomatic relations. Most importantly, he suggests constructive alternatives to this most strange state of affairs. The US and its allies, including South Korea, Japan, and the EU, should consider carefully Noland's proposal for revisiting the Agreed Framework.
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Title: The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History (Revised and Updated Edition) by Don Oberdorfer ISBN: 0465051626 Publisher: Basic Books Pub. Date: 05 February, 2002 List Price(USD): $21.00 |
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Title: Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior by Scott Snyder ISBN: 1878379941 Publisher: United States Institute of Peace Press Pub. Date: 30 November, 1999 List Price(USD): $17.50 |
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Title: Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement by Selig S. Harrison ISBN: 0691116261 Publisher: Princeton University Press Pub. Date: 01 October, 2003 List Price(USD): $19.95 |
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Title: North Korea through the Looking Glass by Kong Dan Oh, Ralph C. Hassig, Kongdan Oh ISBN: 0815764359 Publisher: Brookings Institution Press Pub. Date: 01 September, 2000 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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Title: Korea's Future and the Great Powers by Nicholas Eberstadt, Richard J. Ellings ISBN: 0295981296 Publisher: National Bureau of Asian Research Pub. Date: 01 April, 2001 List Price(USD): $22.95 |
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