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Anticipating Ethnic Conflict (MR-853)

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Title: Anticipating Ethnic Conflict (MR-853)
by Ashley J. Tellis, Thomas S. Szayna, James A. Winnefeld, Arroyo Center
ISBN: 0-8330-2495-7
Publisher: RAND
Pub. Date: February, 1998
Format: Paperback
Volumes: 1
List Price(USD): $15.00
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Average Customer Rating: 3.5 (2 reviews)

Customer Reviews

Rating: 2
Summary: Lightweight, Ignores History, Without Useful Sources
Comment: This is a simple-minded book that manages to obscure the basics with convoluted language. It also achieves a remarkable feat, failing to mention history as a relevant factor in understanding and anticipating ethnic conflict in the 21st Century. It does nothing whatsover to suggest to the interested analyst, for whom this "template" was designed, how to operationalize the few relevant factors the book identifies, and does not provide any discussion at all of sources and methods helpful to studying ethnic conflict. There is no bibliography and no index. The footnotes are lightweight.

Rating: 5
Summary: Have we made progress since the 60s?
Comment: This is one book that would be better to read backwards. It's like a key rather than a theory about the underlying causes of ethnic conflict. The first part is definitions and it's hard to see where it's all headed unless you take a look at the last part first. A good companion to this book would be "Ethnic Groups in Conflict" by Donald Horowitz. After reading this book I have the impression that we are building up to an explosion that's inevitable if we continue the massive immigration.

Another closely related book that's written on a very popular level is "Civil War II" by Thomas Chittum, which predicts an ethnic break-up of USA.

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