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The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History

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Title: The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History
by Harry S. Dent, Harry S, Jr. Dent
ISBN: 0-684-85310-8
Publisher: Free Press
Pub. Date: 01 October, 1999
Format: Paperback
Volumes: 1
List Price(USD): $14.00
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Average Customer Rating: 3.7 (83 reviews)

Customer Reviews

Rating: 3
Summary: Something there, but Take with a Grain of Salt
Comment: On first blush Harry Dent looks like a genius. After all, years before everyone talked mutual funds and daytrading he predicted a stock market bonanza. What's easy to forget, though, is that in his earlier book (admittedly, I only read one and it was years ago so I'm a little sketchy on the details) there were lots of predictions--such what would happen to Asian economies-- which turned out to be way off the mark. No doubt, there is something to Dent's boomers- leading-the-economic-boom theory, but any theory that simplicistic, is well, overly simplicistic. I, for one, wouldn't throw caution to the wind and take his recommendations blindly. For an excellent book on creating a truly satisfying financial life (both fiscally and emotionally) no matter what happens in the coming millenium, check out my new favorite recommendation: The Mindful Money Guide. It succicntly, but comprehensively covers a wide range of money issues; The author isn't afraid to take a stand. Don't let the serious-sounding title scare you, it's entertaining.

Rating: 5
Summary: What is your opinion of the economy?
Comment: It is amazing how everyone has a prediction about the economy, but few will have so many predictions come true. Start with Mr. Dent's first book "The great boom ahead", how did Mr. Dent know the deficit would be wiped out by 1998? Furthermore, I encourage the reader to really study the dow channel. Regarding the Roaring 2000's, I would encourage the reader to read (by the way this was published in 1998) page 296 "remember 2002 could see a substantial correction for adding to stock positions." Furthermore, turn to page 305 "the best years in the stock market and economy should come from late 2002 into...." The last piece of evidence you will find on page 52 "The Roaring 2000's will parallel the Roaring 20's on a two generation or 80 year lag." Do your own research, look at the chart of Intel July 1992-July 2002 and General Motors February 1912 and February 1992, you will find they overlay exactly, exactly 80 years apart. Enough said.

Rating: 1
Summary: This time around Dent's predictions are completely wrong.
Comment: Harry Dent poses as an economist but he is not. He also poses as a demographer but he is not either. As a consequence, he develops sweeping broadbased theories without solid scientific foundation. His main theme is that the large Baby Boom generation is going through its peak spending years during this decade, and as a result it will sustain an economic and stock market boom until 2009. He concludes that it is almost certain that the stock market will earn 10% and above returns throughout this decade.

However, when you look at the record so far, Harry Dent's prediction in 1999 for the first decade of 2000's is way off. The ink was barely dry on his book when the stock market actually peaked (first quarter of 2000) and then tanked. The stock market then suffered a three year bear market. Current outlook for the stock market is for increased volatility, but reduced growth in the single digit range (not the double digit range, Dent predicted).

Dent missed a lot of things. Some of them he could not have predicted such as heightened geopolitical risk, terrorism. Some other factors, he should have predicted. These included the overvaluation of stocks as a result of the Internet Bubble, the onset of World deflation associated with the flooding of cheap exports from China, the eventual slow down of the U.S. economy among others.

Dent also pauses as a futurist. In this role, he just repeats what Alvin Toffler stated in Future Shock almost 30 years ago. Technology will reform the workplace, will boost economic productivity, etc... Nothing new or informative here.

The only somewhat valuable part of this book includes several recommendations for successful investing, including:
1) Save at least 10% of your salary;
2) Use buy and hold strategies, don't try to time the market;
3) Use mutual funds to most efficiently diversify your holdings;
4) Use asset allocation. The greatest returns result from the correct asset allocation. Asset allocation should match your personal risk tolerance; and
5) Invest systematically not emotionally.

However, the author did not support these good investment strategies with adequate useful details. For instance, using a 401K is the best and easiest way to implement all of his five strategies mentioned above. Also, within his mutual fund recommendation, he did not mention the advantages of index funds (greater diversification, lower cost). Thus, he omitted much information for this section of the book to be as informative as it could have.

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