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Title: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 by Paul M. Kennedy ISBN: 0-679-72019-7 Publisher: Vintage Books USA Pub. Date: 01 January, 1989 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $17.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 3.81 (37 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: Great - Easy read...
Comment: Amazing book! Wonderfully written. Surprisingly, only half-interpreted. As a few reviewers have pointed out, it is more properly used as a history book than an oracle. One more clearly understands previous global strategies in light of the overwhelming evidence presented.
Clearly Mr. Kennedy's central premise is correct ' economic power by-and-large mirrors relative military power ' which he distinctly points out in his historical study of the European powers from the 1600's forward.
While it is true he did not predict the fall of the USSR, he did point to its growing potential from the rising costs of military competition and internal economic stagnation. The case for Japan was additionally outlined, economically as well as socially. Finally, the 'failure' to appropriately predict the continuing rise of the US was no failure at all, as the continuing rise of the US can only be measured in the relative decline of its competitors.
In summary, the book is truly an eye-opener. Whether you endeavor to understand western politics or economic policy relative to world power, the book provides a solid foundation from which to expand ' and sufficient material for poignant questions about the future. Great job Prof. Kennedy.
Rating: 4
Summary: Great theory, but ... book badly in need of updating
Comment: The problem with this book (and maybe why reviews are so divergent) is that it tries to be two different things. It succeeds as a historical narrative about the development of various western powers. The Hapsburgs, Napoleonic France, Czarist Russia, Prussia, Germany, and the British Empire are all covered. The Soviet Union, Japan and the U.S. come in for later treatment. The book traces the influence of finance, geography, politics and innovations and shows how advantages in each were strategically applied. It excells in describing the emergence of the western world from Empires and rising and falling 'Great' and 'Middle' powers involved in various alliances and coalition wars, through to the post Vietnam era of a bipolar world ruled by two Superpowers. Where the book fails is in economic forecasting specifically as it relates to the U.S. today.
Four fifths of the book is good, as it is devoted to the development of Kennedys' theory, which is - economic wealth and military power is relative. Relative in terms of its distribution among nations and relative within a nation over time. Indeed, the U.K. of the 1980's and today,(a second rank power in comparison with the U.S and Japan) is wealthier in absolute terms than the huge British Empire of the late 19th century. The idea that that there is a strong relationship between economic power and military might, which seems obvious, is also illustrated with historical examples. What is less obvious (until shown by the author) are the variations on this theme. For example, an economic power may not also be a military power at the same time (Japan in the 1980's). There is also a tendency for declining economic powers to spend very heavily on the military, as their sense of security decreases (Soviet Union and U.S in the 1980's). It is this tendency the author states, that is a symptom of what is called 'imperial overstretch' and is a characteristic of ALL declining great powers. It is this argument and it's development in the last chapter, 'To the Twenty-first Century', where the book shows how outdated it is.
To be fair, Kennedy is very clear in that he knows that writing about trends and projecting how they will play out in the future is NOT history. He states that "many a final chapter in works dealing with contemporary affairs has to be changed, only a few years later, in the wisdom of hindsight; it will be surprising if this present chapter survives unscathed". That was the most accurate statement in the last chapter. It is ironic that a history book has been treated so badly by history, but when you stop and think about all the events that have happened since the book was originally published in 1987, it's not so surprising.
Obviously there is no analysis of the impact of the end of the Cold War, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the reunification of Germany and most significantly from an economic point of view, the use of the 'peace dividend' to reinvigorate formerly heavily militarized economies. In general it is mostly a good book that suffers at the end from a brave but badly off target projection of what the 1990's had in store for the only remaining 'Great Power'.
Rating: 5
Summary: One of the Bargains at Amazon.com - 500 Yr Economics Summary
Comment: I was going to write a longer review that covered some of the elements of the book but then I read the lengthy review by David Willis (see below). I concluded that my review would be a bit silly if I attempted to duplicate his existing customer review that summarizes much of the book.
So I will make some slightly different comments. This book is one of the better buys at Amazon.com and I will probably look at some of the other books written by Paul Kennedy. I like the way the author presents reams of data and arguments. It is very well done and all quite interesting. This book is very detailed being 540 pages long with an incredible 120 page discussion of sources added to the 540 pages. So it is simply another excellent book that provides a lot of detail that connect economics, military history, world influence, etc. As a reader I like to read this type of book so I can interpret current events with a better understanding of the historical precedents.
If I can make a slight bit of humor I am worried that some of our current politicians like Bush who received a C average at Yale and is not a reader has never heard of or read this book, or a similar book, or have many other politicians. They should. This book points out the obvious. History repeats itself and countries and economies run in cycles. This idea of the cycle and the tie in to military power is not unique, in fact it is the norm. The US is no different and we are not exempt from this concept of a cycle. There is a small problem in that the book was written in the late 1980's and so it does not have the "correction" in the growth of the Japanese economy, and in fact Japan's growth itself may have already peaked in a shorter time frame after two upward cycles 1853-1939, and 1945-1992.
In any case, this is a book that makes one think. Following the many of the comments in the book along with our own dependence of foreign oil plus (now) a lot of manufacturing outsourcing, one can conclude that will be more difficult for the US to maintain a pre-dominant uni-polar economic dominance and perhaps later a military dominance. But it is hard to predict a time scale. A lack of oil could alter everyone's growth including China, while an energy breakthrough in the USA could keep the US in a dominant position longer.
I buy a lot of books and I was very pleased with this book. Highly recommend.
Jack in Toronto
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Title: The CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS AND THE REMAKING OF WORLD ORDER by Samuel P. Huntington ISBN: 0684844419 Publisher: Simon & Schuster Pub. Date: 28 January, 1998 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
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Title: Preparing for the Twenty-First Century by Paul M. Kennedy, Paul Kennedy ISBN: 0679747052 Publisher: Vintage Books USA Pub. Date: 01 February, 1994 List Price(USD): $16.00 |
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Title: The End of History and the Last Man by Francis Fukuyama ISBN: 0380720027 Publisher: Perennial Pub. Date: 01 February, 1993 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
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Title: Diplomacy by Henry Kissinger ISBN: 0671510991 Publisher: Simon & Schuster Pub. Date: 04 April, 1995 List Price(USD): $22.00 |
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Title: The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone by Joseph S. Nye Jr. ISBN: 0195150880 Publisher: Oxford University Press Pub. Date: 01 January, 2002 List Price(USD): $28.00 |
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