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Title: Head to Head : The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and America by Prof. Lester C. Thurow ISBN: 0-446-39497-1 Publisher: Warner Books Pub. Date: 01 June, 1993 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $14.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 2.78 (9 reviews)
Rating: 2
Summary: see Pop Internationalism
Comment: I bought this book, and I really wish I could have my money back!
Another reviewer wrote that Paul Krugman, a very highly respected economist who also writes for popular audiences, had published a refutation of Thurow's thesis in Head to Head. Actually Krugman wrote several in the early nineties, during the NAFTA controversy and Clinton's first term. These are collected in the book Pop Internationalism, which is a fine book for anyone to read, as are Krugman's other books.
Of course you can read Thurow's book, and it has some interesting observations, among its flawed analysis, of business cultures in Japan and Europe; they make interesting comparisons with business culture in the USA. For this I give it one star above the minimum.
Also, it is interesting that this new updated version includes only a new forward; the text remains unchanged. Perhaps this is a little disappointing, since it would be nice to see Thurow's predictions for the future from now. But its nice to see how wrong he was about all his predictions before. His new forward says that he was wrong because America read his book and reacted.
Actually, he was just wrong. So I recommend that you read Pop Internationalism in addition to, if not instead of, Head to Head.
Rating: 2
Summary: Flawed zero-sum view of the world
Comment: This book is racy reading , and is made of the stuff non-fiction bestsellers are sometimes made of - a lack of intellectual rigour combined with a hypothesis that appeals to the general public. Tell the world that countries are like corporations , and that America and Japan (or any two countries) are engaged in a competitive game similar to that between Coca Cola and Pepsi - and there is a likelihood that a lot of heads will nod in supposed understanding.
No mention is made of the fact that international trade is NOT a zero-sum game , and that exchange based on comparative advantage will lead to a win-win situation for both countries involved. Instead the book harps on the assumption that somehow at the end of the game there will be winners and losers. In fact, it asserts that a united Europe will be the winner among the US , Japan and Europe. That prediction does not look like being borne out anytime soon , and Japan is languishing in a decade long mild recession - even though Japan did follow a policy of preferentially promoting "strategic" sectors , similar to what the book suggests.
The book's assertion that there are some high value-added sectors that ought to be promoted have been demolished by more careful analyses - notably by Paul Krugman's articles in Foreign Affairs ( March/April 1994) . These analyses show that productivity growth , rather than victory or defeat in some supposed economic Olympics , is the primary causal factor behind continued growth or stagnation.
Someone (I think Jagdish Bhagwati , but not sure) said in response to the assertion that it is better to produce semiconductor chips than potato chips ---- that you can produce sophisticated semicon chips, export them and import potato chips, lie in front of the TV all day long eating potato chips, and become a society of morons. On the other hand, you can produce potato chips , export it and import semiconductor chips, and use them to improve education. The hollowness of a lot of assertions in this Thurow book can be demolished by this silly-sounding but relevant quote.
The doctor's prescription is as follows - if you read this book , read some effective antidotes (like the Krugman articles) - otherwise you may be condemned to a view of the world that is siren-like in its appeal , but lacks even a modicum of truth.
Rating: 3
Summary: Disappointing conclusion
Comment: Thurow made a good comparative sytudies between the economic models of Japan, US, and Europe. He illustrate the pros and cons of the three models very well.
However, I am disapointed with his conclusion. I still do not understand how he come to his conclusion that Europe will win the economic race in the future!
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