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Title: Megatrends by John Naisbitt ISBN: 0-446-35681-6 Publisher: Warner Books Pub. Date: 16 August, 1988 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $6.50 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.5 (2 reviews)
Rating: 4
Summary: Worth Consideration
Comment: Naisbitt looks a long term futuristic trends. He helps one to see the big picture both chronologically and globally. Take for example his opening observation that "While America's new information economy is our most important megatrend, it is only part of the puzzle." He logically argues that "collectively what is going on locally is what is going on in America." The five bellwether states, which set the trends for the rest of the couutry are idenified as; California, Florida, Washington, Colorado, and Connecticut.
A strong case is made in the second chapter for "high touch" (i.e., human involvement) to remain a vital component of the high tech age.
In the third chapter, the global economy is described. The airplane and satellite communication are identified as the technologies that caused the transition from a national to a global economy.
Although an international, global economy exists, surprisingly at the same time decentralization is occurring. He explains in chapter 5 why.
In the following chapter he similarly explains how people are becoming increasinly proactive in their individual futures, and not rely on institutional help.
The proactive theme is carried a step further in chapter seven.
Chapter 8 discusses the phenomenon of networking.
Right up to the end of his book, he makes a solid case for the trends he describes. This is a well-written book, researched so that its essential theme remains accurate although a lot has changed since it originally was published.
Rating: 5
Summary: Timeless Look at the Fundamental Changes in U.S. Society
Comment: This book clearly deserves more than five stars for its power and effectiveness in identifying, explaining, and projecting many important trends in American society over the last 18 years.
I first read this book when it was published in 1982, and decided to reread it recently to understand more about the methods used by testing them with 20-20 hindsight.
The book built from the principle that the "most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding the present." Although the book relies a lot on that method (by examining current beginnings that could turn into mighty rivers), its real power comes from the long-term perspective of how an information society will be different from the prior industrial one.
The trends identified were:
(1) Becoming an information society after having been an industrial one
(2) From technology being forced into use, to technology being pulled into use where it is appealing to people
(3) From a predominantly national economy to one in the global marketplace
(4) From short term to long term perspectives
(5) From centralization to decentralization
(6) From getting help through institutions like government to self-help
(7) From representative to participative democracy
(8) From hierarchies to networking
(9) From a northeastern bias to a southwestern one
(10) From seeing things as "either/or" to having more choices.
The detail behind each of the trends is often more rewarding than the overall trend itself. You get specific examples that excite your imagination. "On the producer side [of multiple choices], it means there can be a market for just about anything."
Even if you read this book back in the 1980s, I suggest that you take another look at it now to reinforce your understanding of the fundamental trends that will continue to be important for decades to come. That's because "we are living in the time of parenthesis, the time between eras." "We are clinging to the known past in fear of the unknown future." "The computer will smash the pyramid [at the center of how everything is organized]."
After you have finished considering or reconsidering this book, I suggest that you think about where your life may be out of alignment with these trends. Do you live where job growth and quality of life will be best? Are you taking advantage of your potential as an individual?
Let irresistible trends ease your breakthrough gains!
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Title: Megatrends 2000 by John Naisbitt, Patricia Aburdene, Pat Aburdene ISBN: 0380704374 Publisher: Avon Pub. Date: January, 1991 List Price(USD): $6.99 |
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Title: The Popcorn Report : Faith Popcorn on the Future of Your Company, Your World, Your Life by Faith Popcorn ISBN: 0887305946 Publisher: HarperBusiness Pub. Date: 23 September, 1992 List Price(USD): $16.00 |
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Title: High Tech/High Touch: Technology and Our Accelerated Search for Meaning by Nana Naisbitt, Douglas Philips, John Naisbitt ISBN: 1857882601 Publisher: Nicholas Brealey Pub. Date: June, 2001 List Price(USD): $16.00 |
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Title: Edge City : Life on the New Frontier by Joel Garreau ISBN: 0385424345 Publisher: Anchor Pub. Date: 01 September, 1992 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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Title: Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance by Larry Downes, Chunka Mui, Nicholas Negroponte ISBN: 1578512611 Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Pub. Date: March, 2000 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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