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Title: The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz ISBN: 0-385-26732-0 Publisher: Currency Pub. Date: 15 April, 1996 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $17.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.12 (34 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: Liberate your insights!
Comment:
In "The Art of the Long View," Peter Schwartz, one of the world leading futurists introduces the concepts of scenario planning. He argues that scenario thinking is an art not a science, and people in general has an innate ability to build scenarios, and to foresee the future. From the book, the readers can learn how to build their own future scenarios. They are neither predictions nor mere extrapolations of the present trends. They help us to know the shape of unfolding future reality. A good scenario must have surprised elements with power to break the stereotypes.
The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases.
For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a shift in the mindset that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".
Rating: 5
Summary: Liberate your insights!
Comment: In "The Art of the Long View," Peter Schwartz, one of the world leading futurists introduces the concepts of scenario planning. He argues that scenario thinking is an art not a science, and people in general has an innate ability to build scenarios, and to foresee the future. From the book, the readers can learn how to build their own future scenarios. They are neither predictions nor mere extrapolations of the present trends. They help us to know the shape of unfolding future reality. A good scenario must have surprised elements with power to break the stereotypes.
The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases.
For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a mindshift that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".
Rating: 4
Summary: Scenario for personal life
Comment: As an international student who stays in Hawaii for a while, Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View inspired me to make planning for my future whether in Hawaii or other places. His explanations about scenario building may be adapted to my personal life as well as in business to plan my better life in future. Moreover, as a human being, we have an innate ability to build scenarios and to forecast the future. He said that scenarios are apparatuses for helping us to acquire a long view in a great uncertainty rather than simply predicting the future. Therefore, it is possible to prepare for our future.
In real time, the eight steps of developing scenarios which he suggested in his book are used in many fields. Most websites about forecasting adopt his idea as a basic foundation to prepare alternative future with social, economic, political, and technological points of views. Although he said scenario building as "art" not "science", it may not reduce the important of scenario building to identify alternative dimensions of future by recognizing the driving forces and composing the plots.
I recommend for a beginner in particularly non-native English speaker in forecasting or in future planning reading this book as a guide. His guide is easy and simple to apply for everyone to anticipate unexpected changes.
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Title: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation by Kees van der Heijden ISBN: 0471966398 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 24 October, 1996 List Price(USD): $39.95 |
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Title: Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence by Peter Schwartz ISBN: 1592400272 Publisher: Gotham Books Pub. Date: 19 June, 2003 List Price(USD): $27.00 |
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Title: Learning from the Future : Competitive Foresight Scenarios by Liam Fahey, Robert M. Randall ISBN: 0471303526 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: October, 1997 List Price(USD): $40.00 |
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Title: Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future by Gill Ringland ISBN: 047197790X Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 28 January, 1998 List Price(USD): $39.95 |
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Title: The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios by Kees van der Heijden, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Cairns, George Wright ISBN: 0470844914 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 12 September, 2002 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
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