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Title: Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns by Alfred Rappaport, Michael J. Mauboussin ISBN: 1578512522 Publisher: Harvard Business School Pr Pub. Date: September, 2001 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.11
Rating: 5
Summary: A must have book for today's investor.
Comment: This book should be required reading for every active investor today. Too often pundits throw out terms like market leader,growth stock, value stock, recession resistant as reasons to buy a stock, and try to predict where the "market" will go for the next six months. Expectations Investing will help you learn to throw away these lazy investor labels and instead provides a framework for evaluating a particular stock in terms of what the current price is saying about how good or bad the future for the company may be and whether it merits your purchase or sale. You will learn that every stock, market leader or not, has a whole set of assumptions embedded in the current valuation- this book will help you learn to think in these terms and evaluate whether those assumptions embedded in the current price are reasonable. The book debunks some popular myths and provides highly illustrative examples that make some technical issues easy to understand. For the pro, coverage of executive compensation, option analysis as well as key chapters on competitive strategy and other operating issues will definitely stimulate the thought process. At the same time the basics of valuation are covered in an easy to read fashion. Finally, the Notes section itself can lead the intellectually curious to a "pot of gold" of information. Turn off the business TV and put your popular financial magazine on the coffee table and read this book instead !
Rating: 5
Summary: Must Reading
Comment: In an investment world filled with tinsel and glitter, Rappaport and Mauboussin have given us substance and common sense. Using the invaluable information imbedded in the price of a stock to establish the market's expectations,the authors present a (fairly) simple methodology for assessing the valididity of those expectations, and to invest accordingly, It is, as Peter Bernstein says in his brilliant foreword (an absolute must- read before you plunge into the text), "a logical path to the heart of value."
I'm pleased to have give the book an earlier endorsement, because I hope that mutual fund managers will learn from "Expectations Investing" that there are far better ways to manage money--ways to focus on "value" whether their style is value or growth--than the costly, high-turnover, momentum-driven strategies that are rife in the industry today.
More than ever after the 35% fall in the stock market since March 2000, investors need wisdom. They'll find it here.
Rating: 5
Summary: Excellent read
Comment: Rappaport and Mauboussin expertly utilize the often misapplied DCF model to identify and analyze market assumptions that determine stock price. In the age of irrational exuberance, the disparity between market value and intrinsic value is often dismissed as the product of a fickle and unpredictable market. Rappaport and Mauboussin, however, remind us that the market is indeed rational in the long term and changes in stock prices are the result of changes in market expectations. The "Expections Investing" methodology helps investors to understand current expectations and anticipate expectation revisions.
A financial model is only as good the assumptions behind it. The forecasting process invariably reflects the assuptions of the analyst, which tend to be biased by experience and preconception. "Expections Investing" teaches investors to avoid predilection by reverse engineering DCF models from stock prices, allowing them generate figures that reflect market assumptions rather than their own.
This value-agnostic process produces greater accuracy in many areas that are frequently overlooked. Rappaport and Mauboussin expose the fallacious nature of models based on forecast periods and discount rates that are assigned in an arbitrary fashion. They correctly state that the finger-in-the-wind approach is not sufficient and can greatly distort the final analysis. "Expectations Investing" also highlights topics (i.e., valuation of employee stock options) of which the significance is often underestimated or ignored in traditional valuation analysis.
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Title: Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce C. N. Greenwald, Judd Kahn, Paul D. Sonkin, Michael van Biema ISBN: 0471381985 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 31 May, 2001 List Price(USD): $49.95 |
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Title: The Financial Numbers Game: Detecting Creative Accounting Practices by Charles W. Mulford, Eugene E. Comiskey ISBN: 0471370088 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 18 January, 2002 List Price(USD): $39.95 |
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Title: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ISBN: 1587990717 Publisher: Texere Pub. Date: October, 2001 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
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Title: The Dark Side of Valuation by Aswath Damodaran ISBN: 013040652X Publisher: Financial Times Prentice Hall Pub. Date: 15 February, 2001 List Price(USD): $59.00 |
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Title: Financial Shenanigans : How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports by Howard Schilit ISBN: 0071386262 Publisher: McGraw-Hill Trade Pub. Date: 01 March, 2002 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
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