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Title: The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg ISBN: 0-86571-482-7 Publisher: New Society Pub Pub. Date: 15 April, 2003 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $17.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.13 (23 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: Apocalypse Now?
Comment: Proponents of the "Peak Oil" theory argue that global oil production will "peak" (meaning that one half of all known reserves will have been recovered) at some point between 2000 and 2010, and afterwards production will irrevocably decline, never to rise again. However, the demand for oil will continue to rise and the spread between falling supply and rising demand will rapidly grow, as no adequate alternative energy source will be available to cover the shortfall. Doomsday will then be at hand. The price of petroleum, and petroleum-related products (i.e., just about everything) will skyrocket; transportation, communications, agriculture, indeed, every major industry in the world, will sputter to a standstill; the world economy will stagger and collapse; civil authority will dissolve; and the noisy, messy experiment that was industrial civilization will expire in a world-wide bloodbath, or "die-off," that will reduce the human population by 90 percent, or more, and will leave the planet devastated, ruined, and, quite possibly, dead.
It would be easy to dismiss this apocalyptic vision as alarmist nonsense if only the "Peak Oil" proponents weren't so bloody convincing. By and large, they are a sensible, reasonable-sounding group of Cassandras, who dispense their grim forecasts as soberly as the subject allows. Virtually all of them rely upon the pioneering work M. King Hubbert, a research geophysicist who, in the mid-1950s, created a model to estimate the productive life of energy reserves. In 1956 Hubbert used his model to predict that oil production in the continental United States would peak sometime between 1966 and 1972. U.S. oil production did , in fact, peak in 1970 (and has declined by 50 percent since), and Hubbert and his forecasting model, dubbed "Hubbert's Peak," passed into the arcane lore of petroleum geologists. Other petroleum scientists have refined Hubbert's model and have applied it to global petroleum reserves. Although results differ depending upon the variables used by different researchers, the consensus is that the "Hubbert Peak" of worldwide oil reserves will occur sometime between 2004 and 2007. In other words, as I sit at my keyboard writing this review the high noon of petroleum-based industrial civilization may have come and gone, and the whole human enterprise may be inexorably descending into twilight and darkness. Sic transit gloria mundi - with a bullet.
If the Cassandras are right, and the end of the world is imminent, it has received remarkably little coverage in the conventional media, although the internet hosts many excellent websites that the curious or concerned citizen may consult to learn as much as he or she would like about the post-petroleum world to come. Recently this state of affairs has started to change, and several good books have been published on "Peak Oil" and its consequences. First among these, is Richard Heinberg's "The Party's Over," a sober, detailed contribution to the literature, which clearly and fluently describes the fossil fuel bender the industrial world has been on for the past 100 years, and what we can expect to follow from it. Although Heinberg does his best not to induce white-knuckled panic in his reader, the picture that emerges from his book is absolutely frightening, particularly the notion that, at this late date, we can do nothing to prevent the catastrophe from occurring. At best - that is, if the entire human race sets aside all its disputes and immediately mobilizes its combined efforts to solve this one problem - the scale of the catastrophe might be reduced. At worst, in 50 to 100 years time, the greatest disaster in human history will have taken place, and the relatively few survivors of this disaster will dwell in a stateless, Hobbesian world that will make present-day Liberia look like Shangri-La.
Or so the argument runs. Perhaps Heinberg and the other "Peak Oil" prophets are wrong. Perhaps Hubbert's model is defective and world oil production will not peak tomorrow, or next week, or next year. Perhaps the USGS's estimate of world oil reserves is correct and the peak of production will not occur until 2020. Perhaps a previously overlooked, gigantic new field, the equivalent of three or four Saudi Arabias, will be discovered and delay the peak until the early years of the 22nd century. Perhaps. But the point is, Heinberg et al. will inevitably be right someday. Someday, worldwide production of cheap, high-grade crude oil will peak, and the longer that peak is delayed, the more horrific the following decline will be, unless the nations of the world take immediate action to prevent the disaster. This preventive action will entail much more than just developing an adequate replacement for cheap petroleum; although, as Heinberg makes clear, no alternative currently on the drawing board appears to be sufficient. Rather, if we are to avoid the catastrophic consequences of "Peak Oil" we will have to drastically rearrange our affairs - politically, economically, socially. Or, to be blunt, capitalism, certainly as it is currently practiced, will simply have to go. Unfortunately, it is difficult to conceive of a socio-economic system less capable of dealing with the coming crisis than neo-liberal capitalism. But there it is.
Of course, if Heinberg and the other proponents of Peak Oil are right, time has already run out for Petroleum Man, and there is little that can be done to avert doomsday. We shall see. This morning (March 5, 2004) the front page of USA Today warns that record gasoline prices will continue to rise, and there is a likelihood of gas shortages this summer. The "Nation's Newspaper" also reports that the loss of 2.1 million jobs in the USA during the last three years appears to be permanent. Both of these developments fit neatly into the predictions of "Peak Oil." One thing is certain: we live in interesting times. Anyone who wants to learn just how interesting these times are is well advised to read and ponder "The Party's Over." We've been warned. Will we act?
Rating: 3
Summary: mixed
Comment: The book evaluates alternative energy sources with a metric called "energy returned on energy invested" (EROEI). This makes it appear scientific, but there are problems with the analysis. The author clearly prefers cleaner energy sources, and so does his science.
Most discussions of this topic fail to consider the total available energy if we used multiple alternatives (e.g., shale and coal and nuclear and wind) at once, something which could happen in a true supply crisis. This book is no exception: it gives thumbs up or down on each alternative as though we can only choose one at a time. The author irrationally rules out the possibility that new technologies in recovering oil/shale/coal etc. could appear in time to help us, or that efficiencies in solar panel technology are possible. His bias prevents him from even realizing that, if only to better our odds of survival, a chunk of cash should be invested in this kind of R&D, as part of a comprehensive solution.
The EROEI figures are misleading when he considers solutions which arise from waste products, such as biodiesel. Biodiesel is often made from waste oil used in french fry production. Fair measurements shouldn't include the cost of growing the vegetables that were used to make the oil, as this was going to be done anyway. It's true that, in energy shortage, we might produce fewer vegetables (and one can't produce all of our energy needs from waste products), but doing so would boost the efficiency of the other primary energy sources. He should include a set of EROEI figures for biodiesel, with and without the energy cost of growing waste product. This applies to ethanol (which I believe can be made from discarded corn husks) as well. He doesn't even mention thermal depolymerization, which generates new petroleum by pressurizing and heating biomass or plastics (and thus extends the "party" and throws off the thesis of the book).
As to nuclear power, the author calculates its EROEI based on today's plants, which he notes are rarely operational. But they are rarely operational because of public opposition and protests, not because of possible energy return. France gets 76% of its power from nuclear fission today, because the French public are less agitated about the topic than Americans are. Again, the EROEI figure he uses should be accompanied by another figure which shows what is ideally possible from that technology. Having these upper and lower limits-- a range of EROEI-- would give us a more scientific presentation on what's possible, alongside what's currently considered practical. Public attitudes can and do change.
I think the polemic is entertaining and probably largely accurate, but turns off the half of the audience which vote Republican, and, as such, was unconstructive.
I do appreciate his not adding to the misleading "hydrogen economy" hype, which glibly spins hydrogen as though it is itself a source of energy, when, in reality, an undiscussed energy source would have to be available in order to even produce hydrogen. Claiming hydrogen is a source of energy is like claiming "batteries" are the solution to energy production. Kudos for not getting sidetracked into that sad ploy.
Rating: 5
Summary: Finally -- the Truth!
Comment: Researching environmental threats, staying current on the environment and politics, trying to make a difference for the better -- all such persuits leave an individual feeling both alone and depressed. Friends don't want to KNOW, much less talk about it. The media are obligatorily silent. Meanwhile, local powers-that-be want to build a Wal-Mart.
This book brings The Situation out into the open where we can not only discuss, but DO SOMETHING about it. It's high time a writer had the courage to stop mincing words and tell it like it is. I have faith that we can both clean up from this party and find a new way to have fun -- one that won't kill us and everything around us. But we can't do either until we start talking about it. Openly.
Thank you, Mr. Heinberg! Now we need Joan Baez to write a song and maybe we can get some of my complacent fellow flower children out of their corner offices and into the streets where we belong. Again.
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Title: Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict With a New Introduction by the Author by Michael T. Klare ISBN: 0805055762 Publisher: Owl Books Pub. Date: 13 March, 2002 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
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Title: Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage by Kenneth S. Deffeyes ISBN: 0691116253 Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr Pub. Date: 11 August, 2003 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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Title: Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil by David Goodstein ISBN: 0393058573 Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company Pub. Date: February, 2004 List Price(USD): $21.95 |
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Title: The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future by Donna Leeb, Stephen Leeb ISBN: 0446533173 Publisher: Warner Books Pub. Date: February, 2004 List Price(USD): $24.95 |
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Title: The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter ISBN: 052138673X Publisher: Cambridge Univ Pr (Pap Txt) Pub. Date: 29 March, 1990 List Price(USD): $35.00 |
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