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Title: What Are The Odds? : Chance In Everyday Life by Mike Orkin ISBN: 0-7167-3560-1 Publisher: W H Freeman & Co. Pub. Date: 10 January, 2000 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $14.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 3.38 (8 reviews)
Rating: 3
Summary: Good intro to basic probability
Comment: Though subtitled, "Chance in Everyday Life," Orkin primarily uses gambling and war to discuss probability. The book starts off with a few chapters of basic probability, and Orkin uses several short passages to illustrate some of the common misconceptions many of us share about the role of chance.
The meat of the book, however, is concerned with gambling and war. Orkin gives entertaining explanations for the various odds associated with roulette, craps, slots, and blackjack. His reasoning is easy to understand and will hopefully disabuse gamblers of the notion of lucky streaks. Orkin then goes on to discuss spend a couple of chapters on zero-sum game theory and the prisoner's dilemma. He effectively uses examples involving two warring generals who must decide to attack, defend, cooperate, etc. when presented with various options and the payouts associated with them.
This book would have gotten 4 stars had it not been for the unnecessary last chapter where the author discusses zero-sum game theory with respect to the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Unfortunately, the chapter comes off less like a lesson in game theory, than an opportunity for Orkin to present his political views. Politics just doesn't belong this book.
This is a decent book and a short read. If anything, pick it up for the short discussions on gambling.
Rating: 3
Summary: Odd book, variable content
Comment: This is a quirky book, but with lots of good information. The tone is often humorous, but ends with a serious topic. About half the book is spent looking at the house edge on roulette, craps, and slot machines. He presented a "winning strategy (almost)" for blackjack, however he does not include the calculation for the house edge there.
I thought the section on chance and chaos were excellent and I'd recommend to readers setting up the logistic difference equation of animal populations on a spreadsheet, to really demonstrate the effect of initial conditions. Contrary however to this strong section on biology, was a weak paragraph on evolution.
The later discussion on game theory was well done, looking at the Minimax criteria and the pay-off models. This chapter might have been enhanced by other strategies of decision, such as "avoiding regret". The final application of game theory to the Yugoslavian conflict was daring, and showed a different perspective about complex conflicts. Perhaps participants in Survivor, or other reality shows would benefit from this book.
Rating: 1
Summary: Like an infomercial
Comment: This very thin book apparently contains the distilled wisdom of a statistics professor, whose only claim to fame is that he is called from time to time to help TV newscasters get some comment from an "expert."
Did you notice that all the "favourable" reviews sound as if they were written by an underpaid marketing intern? that's because no one really enjoyed this book, but the reviews have to be there to sell the book.
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Title: Life: The Odds (And How to Improve Them) by Gregory Arthur Baer ISBN: 1592400337 Publisher: Gotham Books Pub. Date: 09 October, 2003 List Price(USD): $20.00 |
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Title: Randomness by Deborah J. Bennett ISBN: 0674107462 Publisher: Harvard Univ Pr Pub. Date: October, 1999 List Price(USD): $12.52 |
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Title: Calculated Bets by Steven Skiena ISBN: 0521009626 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Pub. Date: 06 August, 2001 List Price(USD): $19.00 |
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Title: The Mathematics of Games and Gambling by Edward Packel ISBN: 088385628X Publisher: The Mathematical Association of America Pub. Date: 05 September, 1996 List Price(USD): $24.95 |
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Title: Taking Chances: Winning With Probability by John Haigh ISBN: 0198526636 Publisher: Oxford University Press Pub. Date: August, 2003 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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