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Title: The Battle for Investment Survival by Gerald M. Loeb, Marketplace Books ISBN: 0-471-13297-7 Publisher: Wiley Pub. Date: January, 1996 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.5 (10 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: The psychology of a sustained bear market
Comment: This is a book to challenge every preconception you have about investment. The world today is full of buy and hold investors (isn't that how Buffett made his billions?). And it is not hard to be a committed buy and holder when the Dow is fast approaching 7000. Buy and hold has been very profitable and almost any fool could play.
But it has not always been so. Sustained bear markets do exist. And in a bear market the mugs in mutual funds become more than passingly skittish. Buy and hold was once unfashionable and it will be again. This is a book (first published in 1934) from the period where buy and hold was as deeply unfashionable as it has been any time in history. Loeb is an extreme pesimist. If the Dow ever sees 4000 again he might become popular.
Loeb does not think that fundamental analysis makes any sense. He illustrates with companies which have been overvalued for years at a time and with companies where persistent undervaluation has occured.
Loeb does not believe in buying good stocks and holding them. Though buying good stocks before events likely to cause revaluation might be a good idea.
Loeb does not believe in diversification. A diversified portfolio will get beaten around in a bear market just as surely as an undiversified one. Moreover, a diversified portfolio will reduce the attention you can pay to individual stocks. Loeb advocates putting all your eggs in one basket and taking extra care to watch the basket.
Loeb thinks that if you do not know what to do you should be in cash or near equivalents (short dated high quality paper). If you are in stocks you are in for a hiding.
Loeb believes in firm (and irrevocable) stop loss rules. If you buy a good stock and it goes down sell it. Buy and holders might just be inclined to buy some more and suffer more damage at the hands of capricious bears.
That these views are deeply unfashionable comes as no surprise when the buy and holders have had such a good run. I come from Australia where the index peaked at 2310 in October 1987 and has only just broken 2400. It spent years in the 1200-1500 range. New Zealand has never broken the pre-crash levels. These are markets where the general populace is scared of stocks. Mutual fund madness is unknown here. I know no Australian who invests in mutuals.
I do not think that Loeb is right. But he knows a few things that very few people do know in the US market. Maybe that makes them worth knowing.
This is a book about the psychology of a sustained bear market. Dow investors will not recognise it. It is more familiar to us in the Antipodes. Read it so that you will recognise it. And when everyone you know is thinking like Loeb, and the baby boomers have become 'mutual shy', pull out Graham and the other buy and hold bibles and go shopping on Wall Street.
Rating: 3
Summary: Timeless wisdom / Dated info
Comment: I too read this book (1956 printing from a university library) given the influence it has had on the writing and investment philosophy of William O'Neil. To a large extent, conceptually speaking, if you've read O'Neil's major works, you've already read Loeb. The benefits I gained out of reading Loeb were: 1) Finding that time-tested investment wisdom does exist, and that O'Neil (and even Loeb) are simply restating those pearls. 2) A laugh here and there. A couple of anecdotal sections regarding Loeb's affinity for sweets were a nice diversion. But these are few since he sticks to the point. You have to dig for the humorous gems. 3) Realizing again that whether you are a business or an investor or a financial consultant, serving your client 112% and maintaining strict integrity still works. The Biblical principles upon which this country was founded didn't fail Loeb as he developed his customer base.
The internet and the availability of info has changed tons of what Loeb has written, however. Reading a few reviews of his book a few decades later may well give you the meat with less effort.
Rating: 3
Summary: Not much of a surprise ending
Comment: After reading this book, all I can say is "wow." That was one long book. It was full of so much information on stocks and when to buy and sell. But the information was not the same old stuff that I have heard before, I was introduced to a whole new theory of buying when everyone else says that you shouldn't because you have sound information on your side. Loeb also talked about putting a good amount of your available money in a smart investment, and watch that investment carefully. A main point that he stressed over and over was not to invest just to invest, only invest when you are going to put in the effort to make money. I thought that it was a difficult book to read because it was about economics, but I think that it might come in handy once I do get money to invest. It was written a long time ago, but I think that the advice that Loeb gives in the book can still be used today.
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Title: The Successful Investor: What 80 Million People Need to Know to Invest Profitably and Avoid Big Losses by William J. O'Neil ISBN: 007142959X Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies Pub. Date: 01 September, 2003 List Price(USD): $10.95 |
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Title: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (A Marketplace Book) by Edwin Lefèvre, Marketplace Books ISBN: 0471059706 Publisher: Wiley Pub. Date: 11 May, 1994 List Price(USD): $19.95 |
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Title: How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas ISBN: 0818403969 Publisher: Carol Publishing Corporation Pub. Date: 01 April, 1986 List Price(USD): $12.95 |
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Title: How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore, Richard Smitten ISBN: 0934380759 Publisher: Traders Press Pub. Date: 14 November, 2001 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
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Title: Baruch: My Own Story by Bernard Baruch ISBN: 156849095X Publisher: Buccaneer Books Inc Pub. Date: 01 February, 1993 List Price(USD): $41.95 |
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