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Title: Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years by Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies, Owen L. Davies ISBN: 0-312-15429-1 Publisher: St. Martin's Press Pub. Date: 05 May, 1997 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $24.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 3.8 (5 reviews)
Rating: 4
Summary: Insightful!
Comment: Authors Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies examine anticipated trends in technology over the next 15 to 20 years. They categorize their studies under digital systems, the Internet, high-tech materials, nanotechnology, transportation, space, energy, medicine and environmental remediation. They examine specific technological proposals and estimate their chances for success within the next two decades. An appendix lists specific predictions and the probability that each will come to pass. The book is necessarily superficial, since it covers such a broad range of topics. Unavoidably, some predictions are already somewhat dated, particularly those about industries that undergo constant, rapid change, such as medicine, computers and the Internet. However, the book provides a thorough survey of the range of technologies that are under study and development. This book is a rich source of ideas and makes interesting connections among disparate technologies. We [...] recommend the book to all corporate planners, trend-researchers and long-term thinkers.
Rating: 5
Summary: Probable Tommorow
Comment: I've read this book only half so far, but I tell even Siskel and Ebert would give this book 2 thumbs up I think..My opinion. I'm probably the only person in the Netherlands Antilles who bought this book. i'm honored to had bought it. I highly recommend it !!!
Rating: 3
Summary: Driving blindfolded . . .
Comment: and taking directions from someone in the back seat looking out the back window. That's one definition of forecasting. Despite the hazards, the authors bravely predict what is going to happen with some very interesting developments in the business world.
Probable Tomorrows was interesting to read since it was written in 1997 and made some predictions for "today" that we can use as a benchmark for accuracy. And all in all, the predictions were good. The tables at the end of the book, and the timeline for changes can be used to help us see what we might need to do to update our company strategies (as outlined in a recent book e-Strategy).
Some of the topics discussed here were expanded upon in the futuristic book The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil. Between these two books, a broad brush look at what we are in store for emerges and may indeed give us some hints on how to formulate business strategy to take us into the future. Overall, I would rate this book a 3 out of 5. It was well written and easy to read, but books that attempt to forecast the future are qickly dated.
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Title: The World in 2020: Power, Culture and Prosperity by Hamish McRae ISBN: 0875847382 Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Pub. Date: 01 September, 1996 List Price(USD): $19.95 |
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Title: Trendspotting: Think Forward, Get Ahead, and Cash in on the Future by Richard Laermer ISBN: 0399527494 Publisher: Perigee Books Pub. Date: 01 March, 2002 List Price(USD): $14.95 |
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Title: Global Trends 2005 : An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade by Michael J. Mazarr ISBN: 0312218990 Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan Pub. Date: 12 June, 1999 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
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Title: Scanning the Future by Yorick Blumenfeld ISBN: 0500280452 Publisher: W W Norton & Co Inc Pub. Date: 01 June, 1999 List Price(USD): $16.95 |
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Title: 2025: Scenarios of Us and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology by Joseph F. Coates, John B. Mahaffie, Andy Hines ISBN: 1886939098 Publisher: OakHill Press Pub. Date: 01 September, 1996 List Price(USD): $27.95 |
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