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Title: Thinking In Time : The Uses Of History For Decision Makers by Richard E. Neustadt ISBN: 0-02-922791-7 Publisher: Free Press Pub. Date: 25 January, 1988 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $18.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.83 (6 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: An indispensable aid for decision makers.
Comment: As an avid reader of history, I've long struggled with putting my learning to use in day-to-day situations, whether that be in evaluating critical business decisions or in helping me better observe and understand the world around me. On the one hand, there is the familiar aphorism attributed to George Santayana that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. But, on the other hand, each situation is truly unique, and the use of historical analogies is clearly fraught with pitfalls. "Thinking in Time" addresses this conundrum and provides a sound basis for using historical knowledge intelligently and responsibly.
To overcome the temptation of using history incorrectly, the authors put forward a specific process for decision makers in crisis situations, and they use case studies to highlight successes and failures in the use of history as guide to decision making. The case studies are all drawn from domestic and foreign policy scenarios, but the lessons are applicable to any organization (private sector, non-profit, etc.).
The authors' decision making methodology may seem a bit didactic or formulaic at first, but it is meant to be used with the greatest flexibility. The heart of the process is to establish a system of critical inquiry and resist the temptation to jump to the "options phase" of decision making immediately. Rather, the authors argue, focus clearly on the situation at hand and confirm the intended objective. This can be started by listing what is known, what is unclear and what is presumed about the situation. Next, analogies will come to mind or will likely be invoked for advocacy (intentionally or otherwise), so quickly highlight all the "likenesses" and "differences" between the present situation and the historical analogies. This should further clarify the present situation and the intended objectives
The authors suggest other tools that, while useful, are a bit more cumbersome than separating the known from the unclear from the presumed in any given situation, which I know do religiously at work. Some of the other techniques covered include laying out a timeline of the event, including major concurrent events along with the details; asking journalistic questions (where, how, why, what, etc.) for each major event along the timeline; setting odds for given "if - then" scenarios; explicitly laying out what kind of information (new "knowns") would change your various "presumeds"; and for various options asking "For the objective of X, Y is the best option because...."
In closing, "Thinking in Time" is one of the ten most influential books I've ever read. If you are in a leadership position in business, government or even the local lodge, this book can make you a more effective leader. The only thing I regret about reading "Thinking in Time" is that I didn't do it sooner.
Rating: 5
Summary: A System for Learning from History
Comment: This book presents a terrific tool to anyone who would choose to lead in politics. In it, Neustadt presents a systematic way for dissecting situations in terms of past history (starting with figuring out what is known, unknown, or assumed in any particular crisis). The book presents several situations in which Presidents either did or did not accurately read past precedents in history. Neustadt's cogent analysis provides terrific insights into situations like Kennedy's successful use of history to avoid disaster in the Cuban Missile Crisis. One of the chapters I found most interesting was Neustadt's discussion on how President Carter misread the "honeymoon" period presidents actually receive with Congress.
Rating: 5
Summary: A necessary study for those who would either govern or lead
Comment: Suburb work - Neustadt and May do us a great service in that they provide a process and framework, not only for governmental decision-makers, but for anyone struggling with complex decision making. The authors, Harvard professors both, use comparative case study methodology to develop their thesis - that being "Seeing Time as a Stream." They also remind us that continuity is not everything and that "Human experience also includes discontinuity, sudden, sharp, and hard to foresee, if foreseeable at all." A suggestion: Read Chapter 13 first - then proceed to the detailed studies that make up the majority of the text. This is a necessary study for those who would either govern or lead in modern society.
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Title: Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (2nd Edition) by Graham T. Allison, Philip Zelikow ISBN: 0321013492 Publisher: Pearson Longman Pub. Date: 19 January, 1999 List Price(USD): $19.69 |
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Title: Making War, Thinking History: Munich, Vietnam, and Presidential Uses of Force from Korea to Kosovo by Jeffrey Record ISBN: 1557500096 Publisher: Naval Institute Press Pub. Date: 21 January, 2002 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
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Title: PRESIDENTIAL POWER AND THE MODERN PRESIDENTS : THE POLITICS OF LEADERSHIP FROM ROOSEVELT TO REAGAN by Richard E. Neustadt ISBN: 0029227968 Publisher: Free Press Pub. Date: 01 March, 1991 List Price(USD): $19.95 |
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Title: One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958-1964 by Aleksandr Fursenko, Timothy J. Naftali ISBN: 0393317900 Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company Pub. Date: August, 1998 List Price(USD): $15.95 |
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Title: Into The Labyrinth: The U.S. and The Middle East 1945-1993 by H.W. Brands ISBN: 0070071888 Publisher: McGraw-Hill Humanities/Social Sciences/Languages Pub. Date: 01 October, 1993 List Price(USD): $39.40 |
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